746
FXUS64 KFWD 271919
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- A RELATIVE LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY UNDER
30%.
- SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK WILL POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER UPTICK
IN DAILY RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAS NOW MANAGED TO MIGRATE NORTH INTO
EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. CONCENTRATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
AROUND THE VORTEX LED TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
GENERATED AREAS OF FLOODING EARLIER TODAY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUED ASCENT IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AROUND THE
MCV WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
PROGRESS NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.
WITH A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ATOP NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOCATION WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE IS MOST ABUNDANT.
FOR TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT STILL IN PLACE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE, HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, LEADING TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW, BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH WEAK
WINDS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, WE'LL BE
LEFT WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
ANY POTENTIAL RAIN REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL MAINTAIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST. NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A LACK OF CONCENTRATED STRONG FORCING. THIS PATTERN IS
MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER-LIKE STORMS WHERE AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO A FEW STORMS, WEAKENING AROUND
SUNSET. GIVEN HIGHLY LOCAL FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE DETAILS REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S
PRECIPITATION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN
THE COMING DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AFTER A MORNING OF NEARBY SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALL PRECIPITATION
HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY, EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST REGIONWIDE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES AND UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 87 71 89 / 10 20 10 10
WACO 68 85 70 88 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 66 83 67 84 / 20 30 20 20
DENTON 66 85 68 88 / 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY 67 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
DALLAS 70 88 72 90 / 10 20 10 10
TERRELL 67 86 68 88 / 10 20 20 10
CORSICANA 70 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE 69 87 71 89 / 0 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 65 86 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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