736
FXUS64 KFWD 301907
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY QUIET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (~10-20%
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST).
- SCATTERED STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
OVERHEAD, BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SOME PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING FROM THE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER, A DRY MID-LAYER HAS LED TO
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA) DURING PEAK HEATING,
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF
OUR REGION. A LOW CHANCE FOR A STORM TO APPROACH THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINTAINED, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INHIBITION INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY/FORCING OVERLAP. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND
QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST AND
TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A DRYLINE
WILL SHARPEN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, FORCING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER OUR AREA.
AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
FIRST LOW-END STORM CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. STORM
COVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD, WITH DAILY CHANCES GENERALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING, WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND DOES NOT APPEAR FOCUSED AT
THIS TIME, THROUGH STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER AND LOW TO MID 90S
WHERE RAIN COVERAGE REMAINS LIMITED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE WINDS SETTLE CLOSER TO 11 KTS THIS EVENING.
A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG A
DRYLINE, AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
APPROACH UKW THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, STORMS WITHIN D10 ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 95 77 96 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 74 92 75 93 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 73 92 73 93 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 75 94 76 94 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 94 76 93 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 97 78 97 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 94 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 96 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 72 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 94 73 93 / 10 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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