621
FXUS64 KFWD 031842
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, BUT STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST
OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TX. OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TX COUNTIES MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE (~30-40%) EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AFTER 9-10 PM. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS
LOW, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET, BUT A COUPLE OF
STRAY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL IMPACT SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE TX/LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR EAST, COVERAGE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR OUR EAST TX COUNTIES. AGAIN, ANY STRONGER
STORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME FLOODING IN ANY URBAN OR
LOW-LYING AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FETCH GOOD MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT AT THIS TIME
IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY LOCATION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW MOVES ATOP, IS
WHEN WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM AS OUR
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER DAY. HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, WE WILL
SEE RAIN CHANCES COMING DOWN BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
CONCERNS...LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
WHILE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 22-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STORMS TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
DFW METROPLEX SITES IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS WITH THIS
UPDATE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A
BRIEF WINDOW OF MENTION OF TS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 23-03Z. STORM
CHANCES FOR WACO ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, THEREFORE, A PERIOD OF VCTS
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 23-03Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE BY 10-11Z TOMORROW
MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS AFTER
17-18Z. A MENTION OF TS MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 73 87 73 / 20 10 30 10
WACO 88 71 85 71 / 20 20 30 20
PARIS 87 70 84 70 / 10 10 30 10
DENTON 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 30 10
MCKINNEY 88 71 85 71 / 10 10 30 10
DALLAS 91 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 10
TERRELL 89 71 87 70 / 20 10 30 10
CORSICANA 90 72 88 72 / 20 10 30 10
TEMPLE 89 71 86 71 / 20 20 30 20
MINERAL WELLS 88 69 85 70 / 20 20 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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