694
FXUS64 KFWD 040657
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
157 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, BUT STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THIS MORNING WILL BE QUIET FOR MOST, OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED
WARM- ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
OVER THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP, PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-35/I-35W WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WITH NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM AT PLAY OTHER THAN
NEBULOUS DIURNAL HEATING, COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE SPOTTY. NOT
EVERYONE WILL OBSERVE RAIN LATER TODAY, THOUGH ANYONE THAT IS MAY
BE IMPACTED BY LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR EARLY
JUNE, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 80S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ONCE AGAIN SURGE NORTHWARD TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT THE BETTER WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE A BIT LATER
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS/NE
MEXICO DURING THE DAY, SPREADING UPPER LEVEL LIFT A BIT CLOSER TO
THE REGION. WITH THE BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF US TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. UNLIKE TODAY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE
SPREAD FURTHER WEST, MEANING THE ENTIRETY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER OR STORM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SPREADING
INCREASED LIFT OVERHEAD. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ON-AND-
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIME REMAINS
LOW, THOUGH A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. PWATS OF AROUND 2" WILL ALSO PROMOTE VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS WOULD HAVE A BETTER THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST, EXITING TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, GENERALLY
STUNTING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH MORE SUBSIDENT AIR OVERHEAD, AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL A BIT
WARMER, PEAKING INTO THE 90S REGION-WIDE BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A SURGE OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK (10-12Z), LINGERING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING BACK TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO NAIL DOWN, SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A WINDOW OF VCTS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-00Z FOR D10
AND 20-00Z FOR ACT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE
GUIDANCE FOR ANY HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSRA IMPACTS, BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A WAIT/WATCH AND SEE SCENARIO. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 72 87 73 / 30 20 20 50
WACO 84 71 84 72 / 40 30 20 60
PARIS 82 70 84 71 / 50 20 30 30
DENTON 86 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 50
MCKINNEY 85 71 85 72 / 30 20 20 50
DALLAS 88 72 88 73 / 30 20 20 50
TERRELL 85 70 86 72 / 40 20 20 40
CORSICANA 86 72 87 73 / 40 20 20 50
TEMPLE 85 71 85 72 / 40 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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