900
FXUS64 KFWD 071907
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
- WARMER AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
AROUND AND NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOTHER MILD AND HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND INTO THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS TEXAS WITH 500MB HEIGHTS UP TO 590DAM, AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 17-20 DEG C. MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD BURN OFF
AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COULD ALSO RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AN
INLAND SEA-BREEZE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AND ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS TEXAS AND THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DRY UP
DURING THIS TIME, BUT THE TRADEOFF IS MUCH SUNNIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS OF
590DAM CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18-20 DEG
C EACH DAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 60%) CHANCE FOR SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. IN ADDITION, THE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, SOME
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL US
AND WEAKEN THE 500MB RIDGE. MODELS HINT AT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW.
FOR NOW, SOME LOW (<20%) CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCLUDED FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT AND SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER
20KT AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 74 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 73 89 75 90 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 75 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 75 93 76 93 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 73 91 74 92 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 90 74 91 / 0 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>094-100>104-
117>119-131>134-144-145.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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