838
FXUS64 KFWD 081744
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF AROUND 10%.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESUME FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
FOLLOWING A WEEKEND OF ACTIVE WEATHER, MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
IS IN STORE TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING RESUMES IN
THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING UPPER LOW. STOUT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS INTRUSION THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE PRESENT, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERCOLATE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OF ABOUT 10% OR LESS. WE'LL
INCLUDE MENTIONS OF RAIN SHOWERS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH
OF I-20 THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE IT A RATHER MUGGY AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER, AND NONE WILL BE MENTIONED IN
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY, WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD LOOKS SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE AS A 590 DAM
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100F. BY LATE THURSDAY, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS BOUNDARY COULD SERVE TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY DEEPER CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING MAY ACT TO ERODE
THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THIS MAY
ALLOW THE FRONT TO SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WOULD OFFER HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL INDICATE POPS OF ABOUT 20-30% FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZE,
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO BE KNOCKED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000FT AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 12 TO 18KT WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25KT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT. BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT WACO AND OTHER SITES IN CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 92 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 74 90 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 76 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 91 77 92 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 76 93 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 74 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...KEARNEY
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