934
FXUS64 KFWD 112327
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 RANGE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE
RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-80% CHANCE) LOOK
TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHICH PUTS HEAT INDICES OVER 100.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FLATTENING OUT DUE TO
BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. THIS TROUGH WILL
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT IN OKLAHOMA AND DRIFT
INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THESE STORMS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDDAY WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
PWAT VALUES ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT ARE AROUND 2.25 INCHES, SO SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH
OF US-380/DENTON. EVEN AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE, THEY MIGHT LEAVE
BEHIND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHWARD. OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES LOOK
LOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THERE IS A LOW (<15%) CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WOULD PUT HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 103.
HOWEVER, THE X FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS
LEFTOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION WHICH WOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM THE GULF TO RESUME ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS WOULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO BETWEEN 101-105, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX. ANYONE
CONDUCTING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION BY STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM THE METROPLEX
NORTHWARD. EVEN IF STORMS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE, A SECOND ROUND COULD
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING STORMS
OR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND RESULT
IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY FOR NORTH TEXAS. THE
PREVALENCE OF RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ON WEDNESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY UP AGAIN BUT THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER ALONG WITH VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY
SLOWLY SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER PRIOR TO STALLING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE -SHRA IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS STARTING 08Z, AS LINGERING PRECIP ARRIVES AROUND
THE SAME TIME AS THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR ARRIVAL AT KACT WILL LIKELY
BE AN HOUR EARLIER AROUND 07Z. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS FROM 08-13Z
IN THE METROPLEX TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DISSIPATING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 93 79 96 / 20 20 0 0
WACO 77 93 76 93 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 76 88 76 91 / 50 50 0 0
DENTON 78 91 79 94 / 30 40 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 91 79 94 / 30 30 0 0
DALLAS 79 94 79 97 / 20 20 10 0
TERRELL 77 92 77 95 / 20 30 10 0
CORSICANA 77 95 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 77 93 75 94 / 0 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 92 76 96 / 20 30 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEARNEY
LONG TERM....KEARNEY
AVIATION...30
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