989
FXUS64 KFWD 121733
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-90% CHANCE) LOOK
TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS
THEY ENTERED A VERY HIGH CIN ENVIRONMENT. RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THIS
BOUNDARY. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE CURRENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS QUITE
BULLISH ON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY ALONG A RAPIDLY-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PLACE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE METROPLEX IN THE 11AM-2PM
TIMEFRAME. AS ALWAYS WITH THESE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE SETUPS, THE
DETAILS THAT IMPACT THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SMALL-SCALE AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN A PRECISE
TIMING/COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, SO CHECK THE
RADAR BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL, VERY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, IF A BARRELING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OCCURS IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, MANY NORTH
OF I-20 MAY STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE
SOUTH OF I-20 WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
METROPLEX AND SOUTH, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW CRITERIA IS TOO HIGH AT THIS MOMENT FOR AN
ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REMAINS MORE ISOLATED
AND OUTFLOW REMAINS MORE LOCALIZED, WE COULD SEE SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE 100-107 DEGREE
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES WAY
TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY,
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20 AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE
OVER THIS BOUNDARY AMIDST A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS RATHER MODEST, SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF "COOL" DAYS TO START NEXT WITH
CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS DO TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS IN THE D10 TRACON THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE EAST
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY ABOUT 00Z. WACO AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS LINE, BUT COULD BE IMPACTED BY A BRIEF STORM THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOME
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 95 78 90 / 10 0 10 60
WACO 76 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 30
PARIS 75 91 76 85 / 10 10 40 80
DENTON 78 94 78 88 / 0 0 30 70
MCKINNEY 78 93 78 87 / 10 0 30 70
DALLAS 79 96 79 91 / 10 0 10 60
TERRELL 77 94 77 90 / 10 0 10 70
CORSICANA 76 96 77 94 / 0 0 0 40
TEMPLE 75 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 76 95 76 89 / 10 0 10 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...KEARNEY
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