224
FXUS64 KFWD 140003
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
703 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE RED RIVER.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING
BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OFF TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND IS LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS UPDATE, WE'VE
RAISED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
OTHERWISE, WE'VE JUST MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER THE MORNING STUFF DIES OFF AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONCERNING HEAT...AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY
BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER INITIALLY, BUT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. BASED ON THE CURRENT T/TD
FORECAST, THIS YIELDS A FEW HOURS OF 101-104 HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE MID 90S ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES OF 100-
104. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION BY STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO DECATUR ARE LESS HUMID SO HEAT INDICES THERE
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING AND STALL ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THEN
SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, NEW SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL INVERTED V NEAR THE
SURFACE SO SOME LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
CELL THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIGGER CONCERN WITH PWATS OF 1.8-2.3 INCHES. A WIDESPREAD FLOOD
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THIS AIRMASS, ANY CELL COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN. FURTHERMORE, REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER ANY LOCATION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 3 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WOULD PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104 DEGREE
RANGE YET AGAIN. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
COMPARED TO TODAY COULD RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD START TO INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN FOR THESE AREAS AS STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE THAT
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100-105 FOR BOTH DAYS. THE X FACTOR,
HOWEVER, IS THAT A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THESE WERE KEPT TO 30-40%
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A DECAYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY PUSH INTO THE D10 AIRSPACE AFTER SUNRISE AND WE'LL CARRY A
VCTS BY 13Z WITH A TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 14-17Z. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDDAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS WHEN THEY DEVELOP. AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WE'LL HAVE A PROB30
RIGHT NOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM POTENTIAL WITH
BETTER PROBS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 90 70 81 / 10 60 60 30
WACO 77 93 72 81 / 0 40 90 70
PARIS 76 85 68 78 / 30 80 50 40
DENTON 78 87 67 81 / 20 80 50 20
MCKINNEY 78 87 68 79 / 10 80 60 30
DALLAS 79 91 71 82 / 0 60 70 40
TERRELL 77 90 70 80 / 0 60 80 70
CORSICANA 77 92 73 83 / 0 40 90 80
TEMPLE 76 92 73 82 / 0 40 80 80
MINERAL WELLS 76 88 67 80 / 0 60 60 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEARNEY
LONG TERM....KEARNEY
AVIATION...DUNN
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