226
FXUS64 KFWD 141926
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH SUNSET. FARTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING, MUCH OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL AND WELL
STABILIZED. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD DISSIPATE, AND THE REGIONS OF
CLEARING WILL INCREASE IN SIZE. WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE SUNSET, IT'S POSSIBLE ENOUGH
LATE DAY INSOLATION WILL OCCUR TO INDUCE SOME RENEWED
DESTABLIZATION, AND HENCE A FEW NEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GENERALLY HELD POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE FROM
I-20 NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD BE THE RULE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE RAIN- COOLED AREAS
EVENTUALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. IN THE IMMEDIATE RED
RIVER COUNTIES, READINGS WILL STRUGGLE JUST TO REACH THE LOWER
80S, MAKING FOR A NICE MID JUNE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, A MUCH WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
HOLD SWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, WITH COVERAGE RANGING
FROM 40-50% ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING, REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION, EMBEDDED IN THE
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY LOWER AND MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE DEPICTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LIFT, ACCOMPANIED BY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BELIEVE AMOUNTS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY TOP OUT ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES, PARTICULARLY IN THE
BELT BETWEEN LAMPASAS, TEMPLE AND CENTERVILLE. WITH CONSIDERABLE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OCCURRING IN MANY OF THESE AREA, HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVIEST
RAINFALL, AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING, WILL EXIST FROM THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
IN CONTRAST TO THE HEAVIER RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH, THE
COUNTIES NORTH OF I-20/I-30 WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE MONDAY, AND
LOWER POPS ARE DEPICTED IN THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE, MAKING FOR A REASONABLY
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY COOL AND WET INTERVAL TO START THE UPCOMING
WEEK, LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION, LIMITING
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND INDUCING A RETURN TO MUCH
WARMER, BUT MORE JUNE-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIFT, ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED TROUGHING AND THE
POTENTIAL APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WILL CREATE A RENEWED
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS,
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ANY ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBED WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION, THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS D10, WILL REMAIN REASONABLY
STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z, APART FROM A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS
BETWEEN DFW AND TXK. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, HOWEVER,
ENOUGH CLEARING AND HEATING MAY OCCUR TO INDUCE SOME LIMITED
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S IN THE METROPLEX TAFS THROUGH SUNSET,
THOUGH IN ALL HONESTY, AM NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. APART FROM THIS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE THE D10 TAF SITES, WITH CLOUDS ERODING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MUCH WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON, AT LEAST.
FOR WACO, MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS THROUGH 21Z. COVERAGE
SHOULD ABATE AFTER THAT AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER A BIT
IN THAT AREA. NEVERTHELESS, MAINTAINED VCSH WITH A PROB30 FOR WACO
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN SOUTHERLY,
BUT A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION REACHES THIS
TAF SITE.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT, AND
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD TICK BACK UP AS A RENEWED PERIOD OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT ENSUES. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTIONS FOR
SHRA FROM ROUGHLY 08Z TO 13Z IN THE DFW AREA, BUT WOULD NOT BE
TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPO CONDITIONS INCLUDED IN LATER
FORECASTS, IF THE FORCING COMES IN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, NOT UNLIKE WHAT WE SAW IN THE DFW AREA THIS MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE D10 AND WACO TAF SITES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
VFR CEILINGS AFTER 16Z, AS MORNING HEATING IMPACTS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS D10 THROUGH
18Z MONDAY, WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 83 71 89 / 50 40 10 0
WACO 72 81 71 86 / 80 80 20 30
PARIS 69 79 66 85 / 50 60 10 0
DENTON 67 82 67 88 / 50 30 10 0
MCKINNEY 69 81 68 87 / 50 40 10 0
DALLAS 71 84 71 90 / 50 40 10 0
TERRELL 70 81 69 87 / 60 60 20 10
CORSICANA 72 83 72 88 / 80 80 30 30
TEMPLE 73 82 72 86 / 90 80 40 30
MINERAL WELLS 67 82 66 88 / 50 30 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ156>158-160-162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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