403
FXUS64 KFWD 151107
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA.
- HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SCATTERED RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST-LIKELY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3" WITH ISOLATED 4-5"
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
AS OF 2AM MONDAY MORNING, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
OF OUR REGION WITH LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM THE
BRAZOS VALLEY TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, LEAVING A MOSTLY
DRY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE
WEST AND GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NORTH TEXAS,
THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GREATEST FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH
IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. RAIN TOTALS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
1-3" RANGE, HOWEVER, ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 4-5" INCHES WHERE PERSISTENT AND
SLOW MOVING STORMS DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, WE'LL MAINTAIN
20-40% RAIN CHANCES EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS IS IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
AS WELL AS WEAK TROUGHING ATOP OUR REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS GOING INTO TUESDAY
THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE
ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TOWARDS OUR REGION. STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
REGION, LEADING TO 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERN.
FOR OUR REGION, ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURS MAY LEAD TO
QUICK PONDING BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PRECIPITATION FREE BUT HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS GENERALLY FROM GRAHAM TO
BRECKENRIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-105 DEGREES.
THE HEAT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ONCE
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, OUR TRANQUIL BUT HOT WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED
BY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
FRONT. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ALONG
WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES AS WE APPROACH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT LOWER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WEATHER IMPACTS:
-A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS D10 THIS MORNING.
- MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTH TEXAS, IFR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
- SCATTERED TS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KACT.
- SLIGHT CEILING IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR RETURNS
TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING REMAINS
SOUTH OF KACT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN/AROUND D10
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, CEILINGS
HAVE BOUNCED FROM VFR TO MVFR IN NORTH TEXAS. FOR WACO, IFR IS
ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS.
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF D10. GIVEN THE HIGHER CHANCE OF
STORMS, VCTS/TSRA WILL REMAIN MENTIONED IN THE KACT TAF.
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS COMMENCE AREAWIDE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION-
FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS MVFR AND IFR RETURNS
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 72 91 75 / 30 10 10 0
WACO 81 72 87 73 / 70 20 20 0
PARIS 80 68 87 72 / 30 10 10 0
DENTON 82 69 89 73 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 70 89 74 / 30 10 10 0
DALLAS 84 72 91 75 / 30 10 10 0
TERRELL 82 70 89 72 / 40 10 10 0
CORSICANA 83 73 88 74 / 80 20 20 0
TEMPLE 81 72 86 73 / 90 20 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 68 90 71 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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