277
FXUS64 KFWD 160028
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
728 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE TEXAS
COAST.
- HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WANING SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS
DECREASED. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE BRIEF
HEAVIER SHOWERS LINGER OVER RECENTLY SATURATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST
WHERE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE, STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
KILLEEN LINE. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESIDE CLOSER
TO THE TEXAS COAST, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE’S A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
HEAT AND TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BECOME THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE GULF SYSTEM. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH, WHICH WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS REGION WIDE. IN COMBINATION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100-105 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE REGION, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AMONG GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS AND LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A
SHALLOW INVERSION. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS AROUND 06-09Z. KACT WILL LIKELY SEE A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 16Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES, WHILE
KACT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO FULLY IMPROVE. NO THUNDER MENTION
IS INCLUDED AT KACT WITH THIS TAF CYCLE, AS THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GRADUALLY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 90 74 93 / 10 0 10 0
WACO 72 86 72 89 / 40 20 0 0
PARIS 69 86 72 89 / 10 10 0 0
DENTON 69 89 73 92 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 70 88 73 91 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 73 91 74 94 / 10 0 10 0
TERRELL 70 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 73 88 73 92 / 40 30 0 0
TEMPLE 72 85 72 89 / 40 40 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 68 89 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...12
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