690
FXUS64 KFWD 161842
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF 20-30%.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105 ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TOWARDS LOUISIANA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 98-105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
HIGH HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON THURSDAY REGION WIDE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. IN
COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR AND UPWARDS OF 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SET UP, INCLUDING THE TIMING OF WHEN THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON IF/WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
VFR PREVAILING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT ACT AND CLOSER TO 08-09Z AT THE
METROPLEX SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR ACT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
BY MID MORNING TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 93 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 73 89 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 72 90 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 73 93 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 74 92 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 75 94 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 72 91 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 92 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 72 90 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 71 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...GARCIA
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