023
FXUS64 KFWD 181853
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING 105 TO 110 DEGREES.
- THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING, BEFORE SHIFTING TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM
CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR SWEETWATER, IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
AS SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.5-1.75
INCHES, CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG, AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7.5-8 C/KM. WITH THIS SET UP, EXPECT
DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE DRYLINE OR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS OR
OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL PRIMARILY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, EXPECT STORMS
TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO
FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
TONIGHT’S ACTIVITY EVOLVES AND THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, BUT
OVERALL EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATE OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-103 RANGE. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WHERE NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL EXIST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD HELP TEMPER THE
HEAT SOME ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE STORMS MATERIALIZE. ACROSS AREAS THAT REMAIN RAIN-FREE,
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY
TO RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT TRANSLATES SOUTH AND A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS
TRANSLATES EAST. INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT, BUT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE CURRENT TIMING OF TSRA WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE CONVECTION TRACKS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS, AS WELL REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 90 75 91 / 60 60 50 30
WACO 77 90 75 89 / 40 40 50 50
PARIS 74 84 72 86 / 60 70 60 50
DENTON 74 88 73 90 / 70 60 50 20
MCKINNEY 75 87 73 89 / 60 60 60 30
DALLAS 78 91 75 92 / 60 60 50 30
TERRELL 76 90 73 90 / 50 60 60 50
CORSICANA 78 93 76 91 / 30 40 60 60
TEMPLE 78 92 76 91 / 20 40 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 73 87 72 91 / 70 60 40 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...GARCIA
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