617
FXUS64 KFWD 190018
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER DARK TONIGHT.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TWO AREAS OF UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS:
1) WEST OF ABILENE AND NORTH OF SAN ANGELO WHERE AUTOCONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY, AND 2) SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS ALONG
THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT CONVECTION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE OWING TO A ROBUST CAPPING
INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALL BUT UNANIMOUS IN RESOLVING AN OVERNIGHT MCS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 8 PM. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK (500 HPA FLOW
OUT OF THE WEST AT ~20 MPH), AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IN THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BACKED FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10-20 MPH. CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION (MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 5000 J/KG), THIS MAY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ORGANIZE THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS AND REALIZE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS/STRONG WINDS WILL RUN GENERALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WEAKENING WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW "WIDE" THIS MCS WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH. AS SUCH, ANYONE IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE STORMS TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
GIVEN THE LIKELY STORMS AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER INTO TOMORROW,
HAVE ALSO OPTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
KEEPING MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE 80S, AND CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 90
DEGREES. EXACT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW OVERNIGHT STORMS EVOLVE.
LASTLY, HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 PARTICULARLY FOR THE
BRAZOS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATE OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-103 RANGE. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WHERE NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL EXIST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD HELP TEMPER THE
HEAT SOME ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE STORMS MATERIALIZE. ACROSS AREAS THAT REMAIN RAIN-FREE,
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY
TO RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z
AND 11Z. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TSRA CHANCES AFTER THE
INITIAL OVERNIGHT ROUND, SO HAVE KEPT TSRA OUT OF FRIDAY TAFS
ACROSS THE METROPLEX FOR NOW. KACT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
OVERNIGHT STORMS TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA TOMORROW. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME (30-40%), BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 87 75 91 / 80 50 40 30
WACO 78 89 75 89 / 20 40 40 50
PARIS 75 81 72 86 / 30 70 50 50
DENTON 75 85 74 90 / 80 60 40 20
MCKINNEY 76 84 74 89 / 80 60 40 30
DALLAS 77 88 76 92 / 80 50 40 30
TERRELL 77 87 74 90 / 60 40 50 50
CORSICANA 78 90 76 91 / 20 40 50 60
TEMPLE 78 89 76 91 / 20 40 40 50
MINERAL WELLS 76 86 73 91 / 80 50 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...DARRAH
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