527
FXUS64 KFWD 190654
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING HEAT
INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 110 TO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
WHERE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
BRING A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW IT CONTINUES TO BE
VERY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING, WITH OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS RECENTLY POPPING UP BETWEEN GRAHAM AND ALTUS, OK. CAMS
HAVE BEEN QUITE POOR DEPICTING HOW STORM ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT WITH DRASTIC CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER, OVERALL
TREND IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SUNRISE, AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. EVENTUALLY, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENOUGH OF A
COLD POOL TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON THIS THINKING, WHICH IS MOST IN
LINE WITH THE CONSSHORT AND HRRR GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE
VERY WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF
3400 J/KG AND A PWAT OF 1.91 INCHES ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING, ALONG
WITH NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.8 C/KM AND
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT, SOME STORMS TODAY SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND OUTDOOR EVENTS SHOULD
PLAN AHEAD FOR THIS POTENTIAL TODAY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S
TO AROUND 90. HOWEVER, WITH MORE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS PRIOR TO THE STORMS, HEAT INDICES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE 100-110 RANGE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON - WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GATESVILLE TO ATHENS WHERE MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT, NBM GUIDANCE POPS SEEM FAR TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND NO APPARENT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM, AND HAVE LOWERED THEM INTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE RANGE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY, WHICH LOOKS MOST LIKELY
IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR REGION, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY HUMID. REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE HOT AND QUITE HUMID AS A STRONG H5
RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S, SO HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SOME DAYS NEXT WEEK - MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN NORTH TEXAS
DUE TO MCS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR CWA, WITH 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR A MCS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A 35KT H5 JET STREAK COMES DOWN THE PIKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS FOR 06Z AS EVENING DRYLINE
ACTIVITY DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS CAMS INDICATED. PUSHED BACK TIMING
OF TSRA FOR D10 INTO THE 15Z-20Z TIMEFRAME AND 18-22Z AT ACT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE SOONER DUE TO
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SOUTH OF SPS. ONCE STORMS ARRIVE,
VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
THE STORMS, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THE REST OF
TOMORROW. LOW CIGS/FOG COULD IMPACT AIRPORTS MONDAY NIGHT BUT FAR
TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS YET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 75 91 76 / 50 40 30 10
WACO 89 75 89 75 / 40 40 50 10
PARIS 81 72 86 74 / 70 50 50 20
DENTON 85 74 90 76 / 60 40 20 10
MCKINNEY 84 74 89 76 / 60 40 30 10
DALLAS 88 76 92 77 / 50 40 30 10
TERRELL 87 74 90 75 / 40 50 50 20
CORSICANA 90 76 91 77 / 40 50 60 20
TEMPLE 89 76 91 76 / 40 40 50 20
MINERAL WELLS 86 73 91 74 / 50 30 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ135-146>148-157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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