041
FXUS64 KFWD 191820
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
120 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
AND FLOODING IMPACTS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. OF INTEREST IS A
LINE OF STORMS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR STEPHENVILLE TO
TEMPLE AND HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. ON
THIS COURSE, IT WILL APPROACH THE METROPLEX, WHICH HAS ALREADY
SEEN CONSIDERABLE FLOODING EARLIER THIS MORNING. POPS AND QPF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE NBM
INITIALIZATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITHIN THE
850 MB MOISTURE AXIS. THE HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY, A SEPARATE BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. AN OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, MAY LINGER AND EVEN REJUVENATE SOME ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. AS A RESULT, DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN MOST AREAS AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES SHOULD RESULT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH A
LIKELY NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES IN AT LEAST A PART OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH, WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS TEXOMA.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PUSH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH
PWATS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE METROPLEX,
WITH MORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS ON STATION THROUGH 22Z. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE
IMPACTS AND AS SUCH, WILL BE COVERED BY PROB30S. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER AT KACT, WITH A TEMPO GROUP COVERING THE IMPACTS THERE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06Z
AND MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 09Z, CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. A LOW (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF THESE CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW EXISTS AT THE
METROPLEX SITES BUT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED PAST 15-16Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 74 91 77 / 90 50 20 10
WACO 89 75 90 76 / 70 50 40 10
PARIS 83 72 87 74 / 100 50 40 20
DENTON 85 73 90 76 / 80 50 20 10
MCKINNEY 85 73 89 76 / 90 50 30 10
DALLAS 87 75 92 77 / 90 50 30 10
TERRELL 87 73 90 75 / 80 60 50 20
CORSICANA 89 76 91 77 / 70 60 50 10
TEMPLE 90 76 91 77 / 60 40 30 10
MINERAL WELLS 86 72 90 74 / 80 40 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATFIELD
LONG TERM....HATFIELD
AVIATION...HATFIELD
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