228
FXUS64 KFWD 201939
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RESUME FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND MCV AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER ACTIVITY. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
NOW MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW, SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE CAN’T
BE RULED OUT WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND THE BETTER FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, WHILE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS DRAWING RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL MARK A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY-SUMMER
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN-FREE, BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY, WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB TOWARD 105 DEGREES IN PARTS
OF THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT REMAINS LOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY, HEAT HEADLINES
WILL BE HELD OFF FOR NOW, BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REASSESS
DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS AND UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
FORECASTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH, PROVIDING SOME AIR MOVEMENT BUT LITTLE
TRUE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS OR CONVECTION DO
NOT INTERFERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MONDAY MAY ALSO NEED HEAT
HEADLINES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TIED TO THE SAME
UNCERTAINTIES AS SUNDAY, INCLUDING MORNING CLOUD COVER AND ANY
NEARBY OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS NORTH TEXAS SITS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A NORTHWEST-FLOW MCS CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY UPSTREAM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BY ANY CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER. THIS
KEEPS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC DAY OR CORRIDOR REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE PATTERN. WHERE STORMS DO REACH THE AREA,
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IF AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARRIVES DURING A
MORE FAVORABLE PART OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
CENTRAL TEXAS LIKELY SEEING FEWER STORM INTERRUPTIONS AND A
GREATER FOCUS ON HEAT IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING
IN THE DFW METROPLEX, WITH A SEPARATE BATCH IN CENTRAL TEXAS AS
WELL. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING CATEGORY IMPACTS ON STATION. WILL
MAINTAIN THE VCTS MENTION THROUGH 23Z FOR THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
AND THROUGH 00Z FOR KACT. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT KDFW AND KFTW
SHOULD BE BRIEF, WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN THE CLOUD HEIGHTS EARLY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z,
WITH A LOW (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF IFR AT KACT. CEILINGS SHOULD
TREND UPWARD BY 15-16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR KDFW AFTER 21/18Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 95 79 96 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 75 91 78 93 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 73 91 77 90 / 10 10 40 40
DENTON 75 95 79 94 / 0 0 30 10
MCKINNEY 75 93 78 93 / 0 0 30 20
DALLAS 76 95 79 95 / 0 0 10 10
TERRELL 74 92 77 92 / 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA 76 93 78 93 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 75 92 77 94 / 20 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...HATFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page