902
FXUS64 KFWD 211753
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RESUMES TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY OF 100-105 DEGREES.
- EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TODAY, WITH A
20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF I-35.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST IN NORTH TEXAS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER MILD AND HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MEANWHILE, AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT, WITH THIS
WEAKENING COMPLEX EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE COMPLEX MAY REACH AREAS AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS, BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING ACTIVITY.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, A HOT AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS THAT REMAIN RAIN/STORM-FREE. HOWEVER, WE’LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MORNING COMPLEX MAY TEMPER THE HEAT JUST BELOW CRITERIA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEATH
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MAY SKIRT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS WE REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, GENERALLY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WE’LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AS WELL. OTHERWISE, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FAIRLY LOW (10% OR LESS) THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN HOT AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT IF THERE IS ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MORNING COMPLEXES,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, THEN MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE’LL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED VCTS FROM 14-18Z
AT ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 96 78 96 / 10 20 10 10
WACO 78 93 77 94 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 77 90 75 90 / 30 50 50 30
DENTON 79 95 77 95 / 20 20 30 10
MCKINNEY 78 93 77 93 / 20 30 30 10
DALLAS 79 96 79 97 / 10 20 10 10
TERRELL 77 94 77 94 / 10 20 10 0
CORSICANA 78 95 78 96 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...GARCIA
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