418
FXUS64 KFWD 220016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
AND STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ORGANIZE WITH TIME
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING INHIBITION WITH TIME.
WHILE THE UPPER WIND PATTERN ISN'T SUPER CONDUCIVE FOR A LARGE
COMPLEX TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS, A VAST POOL OF UNTAPPED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY ALLOW A
GRADUAL SOUTHERLY TURN WITH TIME. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES
THAT THE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER AND APPROACH THE I-20
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE, HOWEVER ANY SOUTHWARD
ACCELERATION INTO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE.
FOR THIS UPDATE, WE'VE RAISED POPS TO 40-50% IN THE METROPLEX AND
TO 70-90% FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER MILD AND HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MEANWHILE, AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT, WITH THIS
WEAKENING COMPLEX EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE COMPLEX MAY REACH AREAS AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS, BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING ACTIVITY.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, A HOT AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS THAT REMAIN RAIN/STORM-FREE. HOWEVER, WE’LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MORNING COMPLEX MAY TEMPER THE HEAT JUST BELOW CRITERIA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEATH
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MAY SKIRT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS WE REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, GENERALLY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WE’LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ANY
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AS WELL. OTHERWISE, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FAIRLY LOW (10% OR LESS) THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN HOT AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF FROM HEAT IF THERE IS ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MORNING COMPLEXES,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COMPLEX OF STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE D10
AIRSPACE AROUND SUNRISE AND WE'LL HAVE A VCTS AT 11Z WITH A TEMPO
FOR TSRA FROM 12-14Z ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING AND
WINDS RECOVERING BACK TO THE SOUTH.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 93 78 94 / 50 30 20 10
WACO 79 94 76 94 / 0 20 0 0
PARIS 73 89 75 90 / 90 40 40 30
DENTON 75 92 77 93 / 60 20 20 10
MCKINNEY 74 91 77 93 / 70 30 30 10
DALLAS 77 94 78 95 / 50 30 20 10
TERRELL 77 92 76 94 / 50 50 20 0
CORSICANA 78 93 77 93 / 10 20 0 0
TEMPLE 78 94 76 93 / 0 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...DUNN
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