613
FXUS64 KFWD 220615
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR
A STALLED FRONT.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN OKLAHOMA AS OF MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL MOVE SSE
INTO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF
THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED AS IT OUTRUNS SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING NOCTURNAL MLCIN, IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS UPON
ENTERING NORTH TEXAS AFTER 3-4AM. WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO AT
LEAST ADVANCE AS FAR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK,
WITH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE PUSHING AN OUTFLOW ALL
THE WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY MID-MORNING. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY SUCH
A COMPLEX THIS MORNING, BUT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE A STORMY MORNING COMMUTE. SHOULD THIS COMPLEX
BEGIN TO SLOW OR STALL, INDIVIDUAL CELLS WOULD BEGIN TRAINING IN
A WEST-EAST FASHION, AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN ALONG A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
MORNING CONVECTION WINDS DOWN TOWARDS MIDDAY. HOWEVER,
REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG A
NEWLY ESTABLISHED AND REPOSITIONED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH
MAY BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF TODAY'S
CONVECTION. POPS WILL BE INDICATED PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF
I-20 FOR THE TONIGHT/TUESDAY PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THIS MORNING'S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DOES COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES TODAY. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE A DENSE CIRRUS
CANOPY PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, IF THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DOES SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS, THIS WILL HELP SCOUR DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH
WOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL BELOW 105 THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT PLAY OUT AND OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE
UNAFFECTED BY REMNANT CONVECTION TODAY, THEN THESE AREAS PROBABLY
WILL MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY STILL NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR
ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COUNTIES. THIS SAME AREA WILL
ALSO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO REACH CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BARRING ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS FROM NEARBY CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO EXPAND LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, OUR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO
WEAKER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE LAST POTENTIAL FOR NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL PROBABLY BE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS THE MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHOUT CONVECTION
NEARBY TO INTERRUPT DAYTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WE SHOULD MAKE A
MORE CONVINCING RETURN TO CLEAR-CUT HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100 LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS OF 06Z,
WITH CIGS NEAR OR BELOW 2 KFT PREVAILING THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PRESENTLY IN OKLAHOMA IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO
ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE AND IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 11-15Z WITH
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ADVANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, AND ONLY A SHORT VCTS WILL BE INDICATED THERE FOR
LATE MORNING. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR PREVAILING INTO
THE EVENING. ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE COVERAGE
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL TS MENTIONS IN THE TAFS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 76 93 78 / 0 80 40 20
WACO 90 79 94 76 / 10 0 20 0
PARIS 90 73 89 75 / 10 100 70 40
DENTON 94 75 92 77 / 0 80 30 20
MCKINNEY 92 74 91 77 / 0 90 50 30
DALLAS 94 77 94 78 / 0 80 50 20
TERRELL 91 77 92 76 / 10 70 70 20
CORSICANA 92 78 93 77 / 10 10 40 0
TEMPLE 91 78 94 76 / 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 93 76 94 75 / 0 50 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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