805
FXUS64 KFWD 221907
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR A
STALLED FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE BEST POTENTIAL RESIDES MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-35
AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-20, WHICH IS WHERE THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
RESIDE AND INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL JET AND FAVORABLE
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. TRAINING
AND/OR SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA AREA AND EAST TEXAS.
PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LOWER ACROSS THE METROPLEX,
GENERALLY AROUND 10-20%, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING RAIN
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES OR LESS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, OUR ATTENTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL BRING OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAKENING COMPLEX MAY SKIRT THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HEAT ADVISORIES HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND/OR INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. ALL CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE SITES. MOST HIGH RES GUIDANCE KEEPS CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 23-03Z AND 08-12Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION OF VCTS OR TSRA AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, MORNING STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 96 79 97 / 20 20 0 0
WACO 77 93 76 94 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 74 89 75 91 / 70 40 10 10
DENTON 77 95 79 96 / 40 30 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 93 78 95 / 40 30 0 0
DALLAS 78 96 79 98 / 30 20 0 0
TERRELL 76 94 77 96 / 30 20 0 0
CORSICANA 77 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 77 93 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 96 76 97 / 20 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARCIA
LONG TERM....GARCIA
AVIATION...GARCIA
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