096
FXUS64 KFWD 260735
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY
THIS MORNING; HOT, DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH LIKELY EACH DAY. AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO
40 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BRUSH
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE BEST, ALBEIT STILL
LOW, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WHERE ANY DECAYING ACTIVITY OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW CAN
BRIEFLY MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS TO
SURVIVE. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR, INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY WIN OUT, KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN THROUGH
THE DAY.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE HOT,
HUMID, AND BREEZY PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAINTAINING
STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL
KEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL
TONIGHT, THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
A WARMER, BREEZIER, AND MORE HUMID WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THEN SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGELY RAIN-FREE FORECAST WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, RISING
HEIGHTS, AND A WARMING COLUMN KEEPING CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER IF A WEAK RIDGE-PERIPHERY
DISTURBANCE OR DECAYING UPSTREAM OUTFLOW CAN SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH, THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK AND TOO DISPLACED FROM THE
AREA TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INDIRECT INFLUENCE ON NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, REINFORCING
LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND PERSISTENT WIND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS GENERALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE WIND MAY PROVIDE SOME
PERCEIVED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT TIMES, IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, MAINTAIN GULF MOISTURE, AND LIMIT OVERNIGHT
COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDEX
VALUES, WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT, BUT THE COMBINATION
OF HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOWER AFTERNOON RH MAY STILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AT TIMES WEST OF I-35/I-35W.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING GUSTY
AFTER MID-MORNING. A NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS TO KACT AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER IN THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS STRATUS CLOSER TO D10, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE STILL KEEPING THE MORE ESTABLISHED LOW CLOUD FIELD
SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE NORTH
TEXAS TAFS VFR AND MONITOR OBS TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 28 KTS
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTS
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 94 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 91 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 95 78 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 93 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 95 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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