281
FXUS64 KFWD 281046
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY PEAK BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HOT, HUMID, BREEZY, AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BIG COUNTRY
LIKELY NEARING 100 DEGREES TODAY. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO FALL BELOW RAW NBM GUIDANCE,
SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. EVEN WITH THIS MIXING, HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL STILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW
SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL CONTINUITY TO JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
NOTICEABLY BREEZY FOR LATE JUNE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S,
OFFERING LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS, WHILE BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY, HOT,
AND BREEZY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELD STILL APPEARS TO FALL
SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
THE NBM IS TOO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE WARM BIAS
MOST NOTICEABLE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. THIS BIAS PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND WITH NO MEANINGFUL PATTERN
CHANGE EXPECTED, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER
TO RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS. AT THE SAME TIME, AFTERNOON MIXING HAS
BEEN DEEPER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DROP
BELOW THE NBM DURING PEAK HEATING. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK TO BETTER MATCH THIS PATTERN.
THE NET RESULT IS STILL A HOT FORECAST, BUT ONE WITH LESS
AGGRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN THE RAW BLEND WOULD SUGGEST.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL COMMONLY PEAK IN
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
MEET CRITERIA FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES, THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
PERSISTENT AND INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WITH PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE OR LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ALLOW WINDS TO EASE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS WEAK. ANY LOW-END RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD
LIKELY FAVOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT THE
LOW CLOUD DECK HAS SINCE SHIFTED EAST OF D10, AND ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY WITH VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, KACT WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE INTERMITTENT
MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ONLY MODEST WEAKENING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW-
END SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 79 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 96 78 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 98 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 96 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 96 78 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 97 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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