459
FXUS64 KFWD 301802
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS WE
REMAIN BENEATH A 594 DAM 500 MB RIDGE, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND ASSOCIATED
SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SSW, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE METROPLEX. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM KDFW INDICATE A SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 925 MB, WITH NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS WE CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S TO EVEN MID 70S ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX,
WE CAN EXPECT SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MAXIMIZES. WHILE FAR FROM A
COMFORTABLE DAY, THIS SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY
LESS STICKY, AS DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINT AND HUMIDITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET. CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S
FOR THE METROPLEX, AND LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. SSE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST, RESULTING
IN SLIM CHANCES FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BRINGING US
SEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THERE IS A HINT OF A COUPLE OF MOISTURE SURGES AND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-35, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH (<15%)
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY (AVERAGE HIGH FOR DFW ON THURSDAY IS 94 DEGREES), WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH IS JUST SHORT HEAT INDEX
CRITERIA DESPITE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF ANY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THE THE 4TH OF JULY, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. A GOOD DAY FOR FESTIVITIES AND BBQ!
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH WEAKENING FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION
DOESN'T LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS NO PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE WILL BE
BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND OF THE "PULSE" VARIETY AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. KACT HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (BETWEEN 30-50%) OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY FROM 11-15Z PER
LAMP GUIDANCE AND HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HREF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS GREATER
THAN 65% PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 925 MB RH GREATER THAN 80%,
SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS. KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE METROPLEX TERMINALS FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN SHORT-LIVED.
CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS TOMORROW PRIMARILY AFTER 14Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 77 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 78 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 79 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 76 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRAUER
LONG TERM....BRAUER
AVIATION...BRAUER
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