033
FXUS64 KFWD 010656
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
156 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE DOMINANT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD IS A 595 DECAMETER 500MB RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPANSIVE
AND STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS, WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, HUMID, AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE END RESULT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
A FEW EXCEPTIONS MAY BE THE EAST TEXAS AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE
RIDGE COULD ENHANCE THE SEABREEZE/GULF BREEZE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HENCE
INCLUDE 10% TO 20% POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35, AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE, A BROADER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOWER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOUTH
WINDS OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WHILE EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF TEXAS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL
SIMPLY MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS AND EASTERLY
WAVE MOVING INLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT HAD INITIALLY APPEARED THAT STORM CHANCES
WOULD WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY, BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
RIDGE INITIALLY BECOMES COMPROMISED ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE RADAR, AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW CAN STILL AFFECT
FIREWORKS AND/OR DRONES EVEN IN AREAS THAT STAY DRY.
THE BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN THE WEAKNESS ALOFT IS MOST PRONOUNCED. CONVECTION
WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND MOST LIKELY SUB-SEVERE, AND NOT EVERYONE
WILL RECEIVE RAIN EACH DAY; BUT GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BRING TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE SUMMER HEAT. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVERHEAD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD DECREASE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES, BUT MID RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKER MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO
GROUP AT KACT FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
FOREGO MENTIONING IT IN THE REST OF THE TAFS, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT CIGS WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. VFR CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 79 98 79 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 95 76 95 77 / 10 10 10 10
PARIS 94 76 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
DENTON 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 96 78 95 78 / 0 0 10 10
DALLAS 99 80 98 79 / 0 0 10 10
TERRELL 97 77 95 76 / 10 10 20 10
CORSICANA 98 77 97 77 / 10 10 20 10
TEMPLE 96 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 96 75 96 75 / 0 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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