864
FXUS64 KFWD 021020
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
500MB RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES, WHERE A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
INLAND FROM THE GULF MAY ENHANCE THE SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND PUSH
IT FARTHER INLAND THAN USUAL. WILL KEEP 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY EAST OF
I-35/35E) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE MORE MOISTURE-LAIDEN EAST, WITH MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE MOVES VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE). THAT
SAID, ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST EACH DAY
DUE TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE DISTURBANCE. COVERAGE
WILL BE SPARSE AND ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS,
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY INTERFERE WITH EVENING FESTIVITIES, EVEN IN
RAIN-FREE LOCATIONS.
THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, PLACING THE REGION IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE, AND MAY
BECOME DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP POPS CONSERVATIVE FOR THE MOMENT
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARD TO
THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.
WHATEVER THE CASE, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD AT LEAST TAKE
THE EDGE OFF THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER AS OF LATE.
BY TUESDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WHILE AND EQUALLY
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA, KEEPING A WEAK
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
LOW CLOUDS IN THE AUSTIN AREA ARE MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS
NORTH, AND MAY STILL TEMPORARILY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT
AREA IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ALL TAF SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY WESTWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY TAF
LOCATIONS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 79 97 81 / 20 10 10 0
WACO 95 77 96 78 / 10 10 10 0
PARIS 92 75 91 75 / 30 10 30 10
DENTON 97 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 94 78 94 79 / 30 10 20 10
DALLAS 97 79 98 80 / 20 10 20 10
TERRELL 95 76 95 78 / 30 20 20 10
CORSICANA 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 10 0
TEMPLE 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 75 97 77 / 0 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page