885
FXUS64 KFWD 031729
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THIS TIME. WEAK
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE ARKLATEX
WHERE PW VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES. WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING, LITTLE CAPPING, AND WEAK LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS, WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE SLOW MOVING WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FAIRLY LARGE T/TD SPREADS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUST WITH ANY OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE 20% OR LESS.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-103 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPREADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO REPOSITION ITSELF BACK OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THE 4TH OF JULY WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20%
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY MAY BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO WEAK UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS TROUGHING OR WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY WHERE
AN AXIS OF 1.8-2.0" PWS WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY TICK UPWARD A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND DURING THIS TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HANG OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES FALLING BACK TO LESS THAN 10%
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LARGELY STAY
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ASSUMING RADAR STAYS CLEAR. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING THAT COULD IMPACT THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF D10,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR KDFW/KDAL TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN
THIS PACKAGE.
CRUMBACHER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 82 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 97 79 97 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 94 75 95 / 0 20 0 10
DENTON 78 99 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 100 82 101 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 76 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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