823
FXUS64 KFWD 031850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH, ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CARRY INTO TOMORROW, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH WARMER AIR,
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CURRENT HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE BORDERING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN PLACES, WHICH MAY WARRANT A HEAT PRODUCT IF CONFIDENCE ON
PROLONGED HEAT INCREASES.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
POP-UP IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED WITHOUT A LARGER LIFTING
MECHANISM. THE GREATEST RISK WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATEST, BUT OTHER AREAS COULD
SEE A BRIEF POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST GOING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CONTINUED
HEAT WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH AND LIKELY SPARK ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, SOME UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY
ACROSS THE RED RIVER COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR GREATER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE
DEPENDENT ON THE PRESENCE AND LOCATION OF THESE VORT MAXES AND
COULD STILL SHIFT WITH MORE GUIDANCE.
AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEND AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS HIGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK
AND BRING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, ANY DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW COULD HELP ORGANIZE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL AND PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
HEAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LARGELY STAY
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ASSUMING RADAR STAYS CLEAR. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING THAT COULD IMPACT THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF D10,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR KDFW/KDAL TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN
THIS PACKAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 82 100 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 77 97 79 97 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 94 75 95 / 0 20 0 10
DENTON 78 99 81 100 / 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 0
DALLAS 80 100 82 101 / 0 10 0 0
TERRELL 76 97 78 98 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 76 99 79 99 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 75 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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