952
FXUS64 KFWD 041850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. HEAT
INDICES ARE HOVERING JUST ABOUT 100 WITH ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES,
BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT PRODUCT JUST YET. SOME
SUMMERTIME POP-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE RISK IS GREATEST EAST OF I-35 AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN
OK BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH BY THE
TIME THEY REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT A SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD SPARK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG I-20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY THAT
WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY SUBSEVERE BUT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SET TO DIG INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BACK TO THE FLOW.
THIS WILL OPEN THE REGION UP TO BROADER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. MID-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEEPING CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING A LOCAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSHING INTO NORTHERN TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE MATURE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20-30%
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
RISK, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESENT OVER WESTERN TX IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND HELP PUSH THE POTENTIAL RAIN
AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LEFT BEHIND WILL BE
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 11KTS. SOME
POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY, WHICH
WOULD SHIFT WINDS NORTHEASTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RETURNING
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS OUTFLOW IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS IN OK TONIGHT, SO IT HASN'T BEEN INCLUDED
IN THIS PACKAGE. SHOULD THIS OUTFLOW DEVELOP, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTING THE I-20 CORRIDOR,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING EXISTS TO INCLUDE
JUST YET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 100 80 99 / 0 30 20 20
WACO 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 20 20
PARIS 75 95 73 92 / 0 20 30 10
DENTON 80 100 77 98 / 0 30 20 10
MCKINNEY 79 98 77 96 / 0 30 20 10
DALLAS 82 101 80 100 / 0 30 20 20
TERRELL 78 99 77 97 / 0 30 20 20
CORSICANA 79 100 79 99 / 0 10 20 30
TEMPLE 77 99 78 98 / 0 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 77 99 75 98 / 0 30 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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