436
FXUS64 KFWD 051101
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH LOW STORM
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 ON MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO RAISE STORM CHANCES
A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS
IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND WIND FIELD/MOISTURE RECOVERY AFTER A
STRONG OUTFLOW MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHWEST TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY POSE AN INTERMITTENT SEVERE WIND
THREAT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. STORM
CHANCES WERE RAISED TO 40-50% ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
INTO THIS EVENING.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR WITH A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND STALL JUST
SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
STRONGER RIDGING BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
OFFERS VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LARGER SCALE GLOBAL MODELS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE TIED FAIRLY CLOSELY TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING PEAK HEATING
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER (T/TD SPREADS >35 DEGREES), THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND EXPECTED CROWDS ON AREA LAKES, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THESE WINDS CAN SURGE OUT WELL AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORMS AND
CATCH BOATERS BY SURPRISE. WE'LL HAVE STORM CHANCES AROUND 40%
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A NOTABLE INCREASE OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MONDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL TX. WITH UPPER RIDGING
TRYING TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, COVERAGE ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS AND WE'LL HAVE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES AROUND 30%. SIMILAR TO TODAY, STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LOW STORM CHANCES
TO NORTH TEXAS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOUTH FLOW AROUND 10 KT. STORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TODAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY HELPS
TRIGGER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS FROM 20Z AND TEMPO FROM 22-00Z FOR TSRA AS THIS CURRENTLY
REPRESENTS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING THREAT FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LATER INTO
THE EVENING THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM ANY STORMS WHICH WILL
LIKELY HAVE IMPACTS ON AREA AIRPORTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 77 97 77 / 40 40 10 10
WACO 99 76 98 74 / 10 20 30 20
PARIS 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 10
DENTON 99 73 96 73 / 40 40 10 10
MCKINNEY 98 74 96 74 / 40 30 10 10
DALLAS 99 78 98 78 / 40 40 10 10
TERRELL 98 75 96 74 / 30 30 20 10
CORSICANA 98 76 98 74 / 20 30 20 20
TEMPLE 99 75 97 73 / 0 10 30 20
MINERAL WELLS 98 73 96 72 / 40 50 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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