631
FXUS64 KFWD 051757
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH LOW STORM
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR WITH A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND STALL JUST
SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
STRONGER RIDGING BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
OFFERS VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LARGER SCALE GLOBAL MODELS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE TIED FAIRLY CLOSELY TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING PEAK HEATING
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER (T/TD SPREADS >35 DEGREES), THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND EXPECTED CROWDS ON AREA LAKES, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THESE WINDS CAN SURGE OUT WELL AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORMS AND
CATCH BOATERS BY SURPRISE. WE'LL HAVE STORM CHANCES AROUND 40%
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A NOTABLE INCREASE OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MONDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL TX. WITH UPPER RIDGING
TRYING TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, COVERAGE ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS AND WE'LL HAVE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES AROUND 30%. SIMILAR TO TODAY, STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LOW STORM CHANCES
TO NORTH TEXAS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN D10 REGION LATE THIS MORNING. VCTS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, WITH TERMINAL IMPACTS LIKELY BEGINNING
AROUND 20Z. THE MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND LOWER CEILINGS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT TO KACT, BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DRIVING BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN TO BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 98 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
WACO 79 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
PARIS 73 93 72 93 / 30 10 10 10
DENTON 75 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 76 96 75 97 / 30 10 20 10
DALLAS 79 99 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
TERRELL 75 97 74 96 / 30 20 30 10
CORSICANA 78 98 77 98 / 20 30 20 10
TEMPLE 78 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 73 97 73 98 / 30 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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