988
FXUS64 KFWD 051901
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH LOW STORM
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES HOLD DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
TO DEEP EAST TX. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DISPARITY WILL
BE THE GREATEST, BUT SOME LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET, BUT RECENT CAM GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OUT WEST WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 100-105. THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME POP-UP
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AS DAYTIME HEATING SETS IN. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT'S CONVECTION
THAT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOCATION AND EXACT
TIMING WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT AS TONIGHT'S STORMS PROGRESS.
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET AND LEAVE LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PUSHING RAIN CHANCES OUT TO OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SUMMERTIME POP-UP CONVECTION BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD PUSH MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SINCE A
GREATER EASTERN EXTENT WOULD WORK TO KEEP THE FORCING AT BAY.
THE DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WILL MAKE HEAT THE FRONT PAGE STORY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE CLIMBING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND ADEQUATELY PREPARE FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN D10 REGION LATE THIS MORNING. VCTS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, WITH TERMINAL IMPACTS LIKELY BEGINNING
AROUND 20Z. THE MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND LOWER CEILINGS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT TO KACT, BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THE EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DRIVING BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN TO BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 98 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
WACO 79 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
PARIS 73 93 72 93 / 30 10 10 10
DENTON 75 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 76 96 75 97 / 30 10 20 10
DALLAS 79 99 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
TERRELL 75 97 74 96 / 30 20 30 10
CORSICANA 78 98 77 98 / 20 30 20 10
TEMPLE 78 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 73 97 73 98 / 30 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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