094
FXUS64 KFWD 061043
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING
ONE NOTABLE OUTFLOW PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD HELP GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT SO FAR WE'VE SEEN NO SIGN OF THIS
OCCURRING. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION, HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
THIN OUT A BIT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A
GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.
THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OZARKS EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST INTERMITTENT WAVES OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH
A WELL DEFINED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BE EAST OF I-35
THIS AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE SOME FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THESE ARE LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION, WE COULD SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS AGAIN TODAY
WITH THE FAVORED AREA BEING ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WE'LL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WITH A THERMAL PROFILE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE CAN
EXPECTED THE STRONGEST STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING INHIBITION.
GIVEN THAT WE'LL START OFF A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS
AND WE'LL LIKELY CONTEND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY,
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WITH UPPER TROUGHING HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. A PERSISTENT POOLING OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT EXTENDING FROM COASTAL LOUISIANA INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. AREAS FROM THE METROPLEX EASTWARD ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD AND LIKELY ENDING
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
TICK UPWARD TOWARD 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND, STRONGER RIDGING WILL AGAIN SHIFT
WESTWARD A BIT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ALLOW A MODEST
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME VERY BRIEF BKN007 CIGS SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE METROPLEX
OVER THE LAST HOUR. THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND WON'T CARRY
ANY MENTION IN THE LATEST TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LATE EVENING STORMS YESTERDAY
LEFT BEHIND A WEAK MCV NEAR BROWNWOOD WHICH HAS SLOWLY BEEN
MEANDERING TO THE NORTH AND IS LIKELY THE SOURCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR SOUTHWEST OF
THE D10 AIRSPACE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF D10 THIS MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH A VCTS AT 22Z AT ALL THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCV DOES TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, THEN WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MUCH EARLIER THAN 22Z. ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT
OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 77 96 78 / 20 20 20 0
WACO 95 76 94 77 / 30 10 20 10
PARIS 93 71 90 72 / 20 20 30 10
DENTON 96 73 95 75 / 10 10 20 0
MCKINNEY 95 74 93 76 / 20 20 30 0
DALLAS 98 76 96 77 / 20 20 30 0
TERRELL 96 73 93 74 / 20 30 30 10
CORSICANA 95 75 95 77 / 30 30 30 10
TEMPLE 95 76 95 77 / 20 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 95 72 95 74 / 10 10 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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