908
FXUS64 KFWD 061855
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS, SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR LAREDO. A
WEAK DECAYING MCV SPAWNED BY LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL S OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
A BROAD MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
RESIDES OVER NORTH TEXAS, GENERALLY EAST OF I-35, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM PARIS, SOUTHWARD TO PALESTINE. IN
RESPONSE, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION, FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW), AND ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (WITHIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND NEAR SOME FAVORABLE CLOUDY/CLEAR AREAS). ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD, INCLUDING
ACROSS THE GREATER DFW AREA, WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE PERSISTS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST FROM TODAY'S ORIENTATION. CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD YIELD A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LEVEL OF COVERAGE EAST ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40% POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK, AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO THE 90S IN ALL AREAS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
CORRESPONDING DROP IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA, INCLUDING THE
DFW AREA, WILL LIKELY REACH THE CENTURY MARK (AND ABOVE BY
THURSDAY). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A ZONAL OR EVEN
BROADLY TROUGHY PATTERN EVOLVING OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
FACILITATE A MODEST REDUCTION IN HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER
90S REMAINING THE NORM. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT WITH
THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE NORM WHERE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS DO SET UP. CONFIDENCE IS LACKING IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS WE PUSH ON TO MID JULY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR D10
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. SURFACE FORCING SEEMS VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, THUS LIMITING ANY FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH GOOD MOISTURE, MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN AND NEAR THE DFW TAF SITES AFTER
21-22Z TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART, BUT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. MUCH
STRONGER, GUSTIER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CELLS THAT DO
FORM.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 96 78 99 / 20 20 0 0
WACO 76 94 77 96 / 10 20 10 0
PARIS 71 90 72 93 / 20 30 10 10
DENTON 73 95 75 98 / 10 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 74 93 76 97 / 20 30 0 0
DALLAS 76 96 77 99 / 20 30 0 0
TERRELL 73 93 74 96 / 30 30 10 10
CORSICANA 75 95 77 98 / 30 30 10 0
TEMPLE 76 95 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 95 74 98 / 10 20 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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