135
FXUS64 KFWD 062319
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS, SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR LAREDO. A
WEAK DECAYING MCV SPAWNED BY LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL S OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
A BROAD MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
RESIDES OVER NORTH TEXAS, GENERALLY EAST OF I-35, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM PARIS, SOUTHWARD TO PALESTINE. IN
RESPONSE, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION, FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST (CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW), AND ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (WITHIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND NEAR SOME FAVORABLE CLOUDY/CLEAR AREAS). ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD, INCLUDING
ACROSS THE GREATER DFW AREA, WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE PERSISTS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST FROM TODAY'S ORIENTATION. CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD YIELD A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LEVEL OF COVERAGE EAST ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40% POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK, AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO THE 90S IN ALL AREAS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
CORRESPONDING DROP IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA, INCLUDING THE
DFW AREA, WILL LIKELY REACH THE CENTURY MARK (AND ABOVE BY
THURSDAY). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A ZONAL OR EVEN
BROADLY TROUGHY PATTERN EVOLVING OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
FACILITATE A MODEST REDUCTION IN HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH UPPER
90S REMAINING THE NORM. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT WITH
THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE NORM WHERE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS DO SET UP. CONFIDENCE IS LACKING IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS WE PUSH ON TO MID JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA
AIRPORTS FOR NEARBY POPUP SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS UNTIL SUNSET. THEN VCTS CONDITIONS FOR POPUP STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 97 78 100 / 10 30 10 0
WACO 77 96 77 97 / 10 20 10 0
PARIS 72 92 72 94 / 10 20 20 10
DENTON 74 96 75 99 / 10 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 75 94 76 98 / 10 30 10 0
DALLAS 78 98 78 100 / 10 30 10 0
TERRELL 74 95 74 97 / 10 40 10 0
CORSICANA 77 97 77 98 / 10 40 10 0
TEMPLE 77 97 77 98 / 0 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 95 73 98 / 10 20 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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