165
FXUS64 KFWD 071837
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
137 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW SEVERE
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LINE MAY EXTEND FURTHER WESTWARD INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME, ONLY
SEGMENTS OF THIS LINE ARE SEVERE DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, CAMS ARE
HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH POP-UP CONVECTION GENERALLY EAST
OF I-35. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS SEVERE THAN THE
ONGOING LINE OF STORMS, BUT EXPECT LIGHTNING AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS TO STILL ACCOMPANY THESE POP-UPS. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN PLACES EVEN WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A SIMILAR SETUP LOOKS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 100-103 AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN HALF. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY TO LINGER
AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW, BUT WILL BE CLEARER
IN FUTURE PACKAGES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD PUSH TO
FOCUS MORE ON THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH
OF TEXAS FALLING BACK UNDER A HIGH. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE DRY AIR AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO INHIBIT RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK APART FROM SOME TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 100-105 THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY
A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY WON'T BE UNTIL AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE
COMBINED RAIN CHANCES, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING FOR THIS PACKAGE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE METROPLEX BUT SOME VCTS
FOR THE AIRPORTS AND IMPACTS TO THE EASTERN ARRIVAL ZONES CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. AS STORMS DIE OFF THIS EVENING,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 99 79 100 / 20 10 0 0
WACO 76 97 77 97 / 20 10 0 0
PARIS 73 94 75 96 / 30 20 0 0
DENTON 75 99 77 100 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 74 97 77 99 / 30 20 0 0
DALLAS 79 100 81 101 / 20 20 0 0
TERRELL 75 97 77 99 / 30 20 0 0
CORSICANA 75 99 77 100 / 20 20 0 0
TEMPLE 73 98 75 98 / 20 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 98 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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