615
FXUS64 KFWD 092236
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE RETURN OF STORM CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECENT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, OUR THINKING ON IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME. MORE
DETAILS BELOW.
SANCHEZ
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS OUR REGION. AS OF 1
PM, TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP KEEP
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 105 DEGREES, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE GOOD
MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT. ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STAY MAINLY ALONG THE TX COAST, FAR FROM OUR AREA.
ANOTHER TYPICAL HOT SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR US ON FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S IN CENTRAL TX TO UPPER 90S/NEAR 100
DEGREES IN NORTH TEXAS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDS BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 105. RIDGING WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TROUGHING TO
DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION, WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK
IN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IT'S A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING DURING THIS TIME, BUT THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED
WEAK ASCENT ATOP AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK UPTICK IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS WHERE WE'LL HAVE 30-60% POPS. A MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE FEATURING FAIRLY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE BROAD BUT CONTINUED SYNOPTIC ASCENT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LITTLE CAPPING, CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT BEYOND THE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG FARTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE WE'LL CONTINUE WITH 40-60% POPS. AS
WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTH WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH THE BULK
OF THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WELL INTO CENTRAL TX. WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH SOME 20-30% POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LOW
DURING THIS TIME, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN A SETUP FAVORING PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX AND PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
IN AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WE CAN OFTEN SEE BANDS OF
TRAINING RAINFALL SET UP WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE OF LOCATION.
THAT BEING SAID, THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAT WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
AND A LEE CYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MAINTAIN THE 10-20
KT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT WILL
OTHERWISE PROVIDE VFR AND OVERALL QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AREA-
WIDE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONE LINE TAFS AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 100 80 98 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 79 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...30
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