287
FXUS64 KFWD 101740
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE STILL
BEEN MIXING DOWN WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US
OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY WITH GENERAL HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY WITH RECENT
MODEL RUNS BUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS COULD
WORK TO AMPLIFY A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL RUNS AGREE ON THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH TROUGH STRENGTH STILL
REMAINS A DIVISIVE COMPONENT. THE EURO DEPICTS THE WEAKEST WAVE,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER GFS SOLUTION THAT STRETCHES THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TX. THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWS
THE GFS UNTIL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. AS SUCH, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF ANY RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY HIGH ON RECENT SOUNDINGS, WHICH RAISES THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF ANY RAIN WILL BE A FOCUS FOR FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN WITHOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT IS
EXPECTED ALOFT WILL HELP MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE.
CURRENT ESTIMATES HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 25 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING BACK NEAR 10 KTS
THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 99 80 97 / 0 0 10 40
WACO 77 95 78 95 / 0 20 20 20
PARIS 77 96 76 91 / 0 0 30 50
DENTON 77 98 79 97 / 0 0 10 40
MCKINNEY 79 98 79 95 / 0 0 10 40
DALLAS 81 99 80 98 / 0 0 10 40
TERRELL 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 10 40
CORSICANA 77 96 79 96 / 0 20 20 30
TEMPLE 75 94 77 95 / 0 20 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 75 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...CRUMBACHER
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