776
FXUS64 KFWD 102310
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE STILL
BEEN MIXING DOWN WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US
OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY WITH GENERAL HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY WITH RECENT
MODEL RUNS BUT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS COULD
WORK TO AMPLIFY A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL RUNS AGREE ON THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH TROUGH STRENGTH STILL
REMAINS A DIVISIVE COMPONENT. THE EURO DEPICTS THE WEAKEST WAVE,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER GFS SOLUTION THAT STRETCHES THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TX. THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWS
THE GFS UNTIL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. AS SUCH, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF ANY RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PWAT VALUES HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY HIGH ON RECENT SOUNDINGS, WHICH RAISES THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF ANY RAIN WILL BE A FOCUS FOR FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN WITHOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT IS
EXPECTED ALOFT WILL HELP MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE.
CURRENT ESTIMATES HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ~03Z THIS
EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. ISOLATED TSRA IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF MOVING TOWARDS KACT (CURRENT PROBABILITIES 30%). WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THESE STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK NORTH. TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS AT ~10 KTS TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 80 99 80 / 0 10 0 10
WACO 96 77 94 78 / 10 10 10 10
PARIS 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 30
DENTON 99 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 98 79 98 80 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 98 80 99 80 / 0 10 0 10
TERRELL 96 77 97 78 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 94 77 95 78 / 10 20 10 10
TEMPLE 96 76 94 77 / 20 20 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRUMBACHER
LONG TERM....CRUMBACHER
AVIATION...DARRAH
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