186
FXUS64 KFWD 112318
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR REPEATEDLY
AFFECT THE SAME AREAS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTERLY DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SUPPLY OF GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MORNING’S FORT WORTH
SOUNDING SAMPLED A PW VALUE NEAR THE UPPER QUARTILE OF THE DAILY
CLIMATOLOGY, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE HOT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER
COVERAGE IS FAVORED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE INLAND-MOVING GULF
COAST CONVECTION, THE SEA BREEZE, AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE MORE OBVIOUS SOURCES OF LIFT. NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HOTTER AND MORE STRONGLY MIXED, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM STORMS TO THE SOUTH COULD OCCASIONALLY ENCROACH ON THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND PROVIDE BRIEF RELIEF IN A FEW SPOTS. IN CENTRAL
TEXAS, WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST HIGHS, AREAS THAT REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STILL BECOME QUITE WARM, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE ORGANIZED LARGE-SCALE FORCING,
TODAY’S STORM EVOLUTION WILL BE GOVERNED MAINLY BY BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING, LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE, AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WET
MICROBURSTS. PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE CELLS MERGE OR COLLAPSE ALONG INTERSECTING
BOUNDARIES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS
THE EASTERLY DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER AND PW VALUES RISE TO
AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FORECAST
PROFILES SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER FLOW AND SKINNY CAPE. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS RATHER THAN
SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME THE MORE COMMON CONCERN.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN SUNDAY'S TIMING AND
FAVORED CORRIDOR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BOUNDARY
TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY SEND OUTFLOW SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER,
WHILE STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD
PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY OR WEAK MESOSCALE CIRCULATION.
EITHER FEATURE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THEIR ABSENCE, MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE LARGER SCALE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING ACROSS
THE DFW METROPLEX AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MARK A
TRANSITION AWAY FROM A PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN AS
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY DISTURBANCE ALLOWS
CONVECTION TO PERSIST AFTER SUNSET. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS THE EASTERLY DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS BENEATH A BROAD
RIDGE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP GULF MOISTURE, WEAK
STEERING FLOW, AND MULTIPLE REMNANT BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE BETTER COVERAGE AND HEAVIER RAIN SIGNAL SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EVOLUTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND WHERE PREVIOUS CONVECTION
LEAVES BEHIND THE MOST PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
CLOUD COVER AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN MANY AREAS MONDAY. THIS
WILL NOT BE UNIFORM, HOWEVER. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS MAY STILL WARM EFFICIENTLY,
WHILE AREAS RECEIVING EARLIER RAIN COULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY
COOLER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SPEED OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
WOULD KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE LONGER, WHILE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR TO
RETURN SOONER. BY MIDWEEK, THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND ELONGATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL PLACE MANY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES, INCLUDING
TEXAS, WITHIN EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES SHIFTING WESTWARD. RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING DECREASING STORM
COVERAGE AND A RETURN TO HOTTER CONDITIONS. EVEN THEN, CONFIDENCE
IN A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE
FULLY CLEARS THE REGION.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL:
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PW VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, DEEP WARM-CLOUD LAYERS, AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING CELLS
AND TRAINING. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE WHERE A REMNANT
BOUNDARY OR WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A LONG
PERIOD.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS GEOGRAPHIC (LOCATION), NOT WHETHER
HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON, DETERMINISTIC QPF
PLACEMENT SHOULD BE TREATED CAUTIOUSLY IN THIS WEAKLY FORCED
PATTERN. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
ESTABLISHED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY NOT BECOME APPARENT
UNTIL CONVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THERE IS A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE (10-20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 (KAFW, KFTW, KDFW,
KGKY, KDAL) BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
HOW OVERNIGHT TSRA IN OKLAHOMA EVOLVES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z THUS WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF
TEMPO TSRA AT METROPLEX TAF SITES. THOUGH PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BE S/SSE AT ~10 KTS TOMORROW, AS SHRA/TSRA INCREASES IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER 18Z, WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS OF 20-35 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. SHRA/TSRA IS
UNLIKELY (~20% CHANCE) AT KACT BEFORE 00Z TOMORROW SO HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 97 77 94 / 10 50 60 40
WACO 76 95 76 91 / 10 20 50 70
PARIS 75 93 72 91 / 20 40 50 30
DENTON 78 95 75 94 / 10 50 50 30
MCKINNEY 79 96 75 92 / 10 50 60 30
DALLAS 80 97 77 95 / 10 50 60 40
TERRELL 76 95 74 92 / 10 50 60 40
CORSICANA 77 96 76 93 / 10 40 50 60
TEMPLE 75 96 75 91 / 10 20 50 70
MINERAL WELLS 74 96 72 93 / 10 40 40 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...DARRAH
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