551
FXUS64 KFWD 120622
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
AND HAIL.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL BE DUE A NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE/LOW WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME OF WHICH MAY ENCROACH
ON OUR TEXOMA AREAS AROUND SUNRISE AS NEW DEVELOPMENT
PROGRESSIVELY OCCURS ALONG A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH TEXAS HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY, WHILE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITHIN INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT WHILE
CAPPING EASILY ERODES. WHILE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, THE DYNAMIC ASCENT FROM THE EASTERLY
WAVE WILL AT LEAST ALLOW ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS, WITH ANOTHER
BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION AIDED BY DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AGAIN ON
MONDAY.
RICH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2" WILL ALLOW FOR
FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD,
LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 2-3" PER HOUR. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ALL ACTIVITY, WHICH
WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH WEAK FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND A TERTIARY HAIL THREAT,
ALTHOUGH THESE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS SHOULD STAY QUITE
ISOLATED. FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS, THIS WILL LARGELY BE A
BENEFICIAL MID-SUMMER RAINFALL EVENT, WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW NORMAL IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOWS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ASCENT
FORM THE UPPER LOW REACHES ITS MAXIMUM ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. OVERALL, THE THREE-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY ERRATIC DUE TO THE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME UNLUCKY AREAS MAY
MISS OUT ON RAINFALL ENTIRELY THROUGH THESE FEW DAYS, OTHERS WILL
HAVE SEEN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. FOR
THIS REASON, QPF MESSAGING IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE, SINCE MODEL AVERAGES THAT ARE SPATIALLY SMOOTHED WILL
BE COMPLETELY UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE FINAL OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WHICH WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION.
BY MIDWEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN WITH LINGERING 20-30% POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND ROUGHLY 10%
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING CONTROL. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S
FOLLOWING THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
COMBINATION OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH NEW DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR
THE TAF SITES TODAY, WITH CHANCES MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY'S
PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOWS COULD ALSO RESULT IN TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFTS, BUT OTHERWISE A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KT WILL
PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 79 97 77 / 10 10 50 60
WACO 96 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 50
PARIS 95 75 93 72 / 10 20 40 50
DENTON 99 78 95 75 / 10 10 50 50
MCKINNEY 98 79 96 75 / 10 10 50 60
DALLAS 98 80 97 77 / 10 10 50 60
TERRELL 97 76 95 74 / 10 10 50 60
CORSICANA 96 77 96 76 / 20 10 40 50
TEMPLE 93 75 96 75 / 30 10 20 50
MINERAL WELLS 97 74 96 72 / 10 10 40 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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