441
FXUS64 KFWD 121853
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A HUMID, WEAK-FLOW CONVECTIVE REGIME IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT OKLAHOMA COMPLEX
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER AND WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WAS MINIMAL
THIS MORNING, AND CLOUD COVER SCATTERED QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MODERATELY INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING ACTS ON THE EXISTING
BOUNDARIES, THOUGH THE EPISODIC AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY MEANS NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER CORES COLLAPSE.
THIS MORNING'S FORT WORTH SOUNDING SAMPLED A PW VALUE NEAR 2
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY AND
APPROACHING THE UPPER END OF LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. COMBINED WITH WEAK
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SLOW
OR ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS AND CELL MERGERS. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
ALREADY DEMONSTRATED ITS ABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES (2
TO 2.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR IN PARTS OF OK THIS MORNING), SO EVEN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BECOME HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY UNEVEN, BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, POOR-DRAINAGE LOCATIONS, OR WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME CORRIDOR.
THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY
SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH AND THE EASTERLY DISTURBANCE SHIFTS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE FEEDING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WHILE WEAK
STEERING FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. STORMS MAY CONTINUE REDEVELOPING ON
THE INFLOW SIDE OF EXISTING CLUSTERS, ALLOWING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE SAME CORRIDOR. THIS FAVORS TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING FROM ROUGHLY THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE DFW METROPLEX AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE TODAY’S CONVECTION LEAVES BEHIND THE MOST
PERSISTENT BOUNDARIES. CLOUDS, RAIN, AND OUTFLOWS SHOULD HOLD
MONDAY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE BETTER HEAVY-RAIN SIGNAL SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE, WEAK MEAN FLOW, AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE GREATEST FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS
VALLEY, INCLUDING THE WACO AREA. THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
WILL BE THOSE THAT RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAIN BEFOREHAND, SINCE
ANOTHER ROUND OVER THE SAME CORRIDOR COULD QUICKLY OVERWHELM URBAN
DRAINAGE OR OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER IN THE PLACEMENT AND DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THAN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION, AND ANY FORECAST TRAINING AXIS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
BOUNDARIES THAT MAY NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL STORMS ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTRACT SOUTH AND WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS, THOUGH A SLOWER PROGRESSION WOULD KEEP MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN CENTRAL TEXAS LONGER. RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING DECREASING STORM COVERAGE AND A RETURN TO HOTTER
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS,
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT, AND A PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY GOING
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER REGION, AND SHOULD DEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE
DISORGANIZED AND A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AT INDIVIDUAL
AIRPORTS. MOST CAMS DO AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FOR THE DFW METRO AREA, AN A TEMPO FOR TS
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 1221/1301 UTC TIME FRAME. CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH WITHIN THE LIGHT NORTH FLOW ALOFT, PUSHING THE
TEMPO A COUPLE HOURS LATER FOR KACT.
A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH WANING
INSTABILITY, BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD, AND
VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR 10-16Z MONDAY TO THE DFW METROPLEX TAFS.
THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTH, AFFECTING CENTRAL
TEXAS INCLUDING KACT LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 91 74 89 / 40 60 30 60
WACO 75 89 72 86 / 40 80 50 90
PARIS 72 89 71 88 / 60 30 30 30
DENTON 73 91 72 90 / 40 50 20 40
MCKINNEY 74 89 72 88 / 50 50 20 40
DALLAS 76 91 73 90 / 40 60 30 60
TERRELL 73 89 71 88 / 50 70 30 70
CORSICANA 75 90 73 89 / 40 70 40 80
TEMPLE 75 90 72 85 / 30 70 60 90
MINERAL WELLS 71 90 70 88 / 40 60 30 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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