315
FXUS64 KFWD 130600
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, BEFORE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMES BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND RICH GULF MOISTURE. THIS DIFFUSE PATTERN
AND WEAK DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AND BE
MAINTAINED OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING HOURS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD STILL TEND TO BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAYTIME BOTH TODAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OVER 2", ALL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OBSERVED RATES ON THE ORDER OF 3" PER
HOUR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH A MUCH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS. DUE TO
THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS, NO FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT IS CURRENTLY PLANNED WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE WEAKLY FORCED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND PRECISION SINCE NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROGRESSIVELY HINGE ON SMALL-SCALE FEATURES LIKE
OUTFLOWS AND MCVS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS SHOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD MAINLY
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING A RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, A REBLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY,
WHILE AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SEE MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF ONLY 20-30%.
FOR MANY AREAS, THIS EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
A BENEFIT, BOTH IN TERMS OF RARE MID-SUMMER RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. AMPLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE
OF RAIN-COOLED AIR DURING PEAK HEATING WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY, AND AREAS
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME MAY ONLY
SEE HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHILE THE GREATEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW/EASTERLY WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY TEND TO BE
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN COMPARISON TO THE PRECEDING COUPLE OF
DAYS IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER ASCENT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY, WITH RECENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLOWER SOUTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RESUME BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY BUILD AND
SUBSIDENCE REGAINS CONTROL. THIS WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF D10 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON AN
INTERMITTENT BASIS. WHILE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING, WILL ATTEMPT TO INDICATE
TARGETED TS MENTIONS IN THE TAFS WHEN THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE AT
ITS HIGHEST. THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERY
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE AND EARLY MORNING, WITH PEAK
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE D10 AIRPORTS AROUND MIDDAY. MVFR
CIGS/VIS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LIVED. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH IS WHEN WACO WILL HAVE ITS HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THESE WINDS MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, BUT THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME RANGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 76 91 74 / 50 40 50 30
WACO 96 75 89 72 / 50 30 70 50
PARIS 90 72 89 71 / 60 60 30 30
DENTON 96 73 91 72 / 50 40 40 20
MCKINNEY 97 74 89 72 / 50 40 40 20
DALLAS 100 76 91 73 / 50 40 50 30
TERRELL 97 73 89 71 / 50 50 60 30
CORSICANA 93 75 90 73 / 50 40 70 40
TEMPLE 96 75 90 72 / 30 30 70 60
MINERAL WELLS 96 71 90 70 / 50 40 50 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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