456
FXUS64 KFWD 140557
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL
IN THE 90S AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 AS THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL VORT-MAX. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BUT WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN (DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH SUNSET).
WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWAT RANGING FROM 1.75" TO
2.25") IN ADDITION TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS FROM WEAK STEERING FLOW,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE OF CONCERN,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-84 WHERE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BOTH BE GREATER THAN FURTHER NORTH.
WHILE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY LARGELY REMAINING IN THE 80S. THERE
MAY BE SOME AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS THAT REACH LOW-90S, BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER RAIN/CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR NOT. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE; GENERALLY
IN THE LOW-70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING OVER TEXAS, WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER STORMY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY OWING TO WEAK PVA AS THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY POSITIONED
IN CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINS TO SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. JUST
LIKE TUESDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE 80S TO THE LOW-90S
(AGAIN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS). ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE OF
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO WORK INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING), THESE PROBABILITIES (30-40% CHANCE) WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281 AND DECREASE WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. NONETHELESS, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR (10-20% CHANCE) BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS CLOUD AND STORM COVERAGE DECREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE RISE. HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER-80S AND LOWER-90S (COLDER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT IN TANDEM
WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN/CLOUD COVER).
..THIS WEEKEND
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN TO
THE REGION BRINGING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S
DURING THE DAY. NIGHTS WILL AGAIN BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 17Z AND
00Z AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS TOO LOW AND PRECLUDES ANY CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS DIRECTLY TO NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. TEMPO TSRA
HAS BEEN ADDED TO KACT'S TAF WHEN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST. HAVE KEPT -SHRA AT KACT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, BUT TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME. WILL ALSO MONITOR A POTENTIAL DECK OF
MVFR STRATUS BEFORE 15Z, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FEW/SCT
KEEPING VFR THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 72 90 74 / 30 30 50 30
WACO 86 72 88 73 / 60 30 60 30
PARIS 87 70 88 71 / 30 20 50 20
DENTON 89 70 90 72 / 30 20 40 30
MCKINNEY 88 71 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
DALLAS 90 72 91 75 / 40 30 50 30
TERRELL 88 70 90 72 / 40 30 50 20
CORSICANA 85 73 90 74 / 50 30 60 20
TEMPLE 84 72 87 72 / 70 30 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 86 69 89 70 / 40 30 40 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ142-143-156>160-174-175.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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