770
FXUS64 KFWD 142342
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL
IN THE 90S AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX BUT OUR
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA AND THIS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN QUIET FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND MAY SPREAD INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BY EARLY MORNING. WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME 20-40% POPS THERE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. WE'LL ALSO ALLOW THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHERWISE, HAVE MAINLY LOWERED POPS FARTHER NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RE-
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT SPECIFICS
REGARDING SPATIAL COVERAGE AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST WITH ANY RELIABLE ACCURACY.
STARTING WITH TODAY...AN MCV IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BRAZOS VALLEY. MEAN FLOW IN THE 500-700 MB LEVEL SHOULD DRAW
THIS FEATURE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT A RATHER EXPANSIVE BLANKET OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO PERSIST NEAR THIS MCV WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WHERE SMALLER-SCALE
BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE MCV. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVANCE OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTH TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, FORECAST AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES
HELP NUDGE PARCELS UPWARD. NOTABLY, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AN
INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THAT,
OUTSIDE OF SOME MODEST DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
DEVELOPING INTO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE MORE HIT OR
MISS, WITH COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING NEW STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS FLASH FLOODING SINCE
A VERY TROPICAL-LIKE (WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH) ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND HEAVY RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH, THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL LOWER THE
FLOODING THREAT, BUT INCREASE THE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND (GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH) THREATS.
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRACT TOWARD THE MCV OVER WESTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT A LOWER
THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THE FLOOD THREAT IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MCV MAY WASH OUT AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE
MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE SYNOPTIC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS, LIKELY ADVANCING NORTH ALONG SOME KIND OF COLD POOL OR
BOUNDARY. IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW IF THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MCV WILL
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA, BUT IF ONE DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL LOCALLY
INCREASE THE POPS AND FLOOD RISK.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO WORK INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING), THESE PROBABILITIES (30-40% CHANCE) WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281 AND DECREASE WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. NONETHELESS, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR (10-20% CHANCE) BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS CLOUD AND STORM COVERAGE DECREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE RISE. HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER-80S AND LOWER-90S (COLDER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT IN TANDEM
WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN/CLOUD COVER).
..THIS WEEKEND
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN TO
THE REGION BRINGING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S
DURING THE DAY. NIGHTS WILL AGAIN BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-70S.
DARRAH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY CEASED ACROSS THE D10 AIRSPACE
THIS EVENING AND THINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE SOME MVFR
CIGS WHICH HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS BUT COULD SNEAK IN HERE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE WE'LL
HAVE A VCSH THROUGH THE EVENING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 90 74 90 / 10 30 30 40
WACO 70 85 72 87 / 20 50 30 50
PARIS 70 88 71 88 / 20 40 20 20
DENTON 70 91 72 90 / 10 20 20 40
MCKINNEY 71 91 73 89 / 10 20 20 30
DALLAS 72 91 75 90 / 10 30 30 40
TERRELL 70 90 72 89 / 10 30 20 30
CORSICANA 71 87 73 89 / 10 40 20 30
TEMPLE 70 84 71 86 / 30 60 40 50
MINERAL WELLS 68 87 70 88 / 10 30 30 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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