457
FXUS64 KFWD 151048
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70% CHANCE) ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
(20-30%) ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE) REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (50-70%) WILL GENERALLY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT DUE TO A GREATER
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT INTRUDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS LENDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY TO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR), SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
BELOW 40% FOR NORTH TEXAS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL AGAIN KEEP
CENTRAL TEXAS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. LOW-90S ARE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MORE CLEAR AND
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
THE GREATEST HAZARD TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR WHERE STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GREATEST.
STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED (15-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE UPPER-60S TO THE LOWER-70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BY THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK, THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT FURTHER WEST, REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. NONETHELESS, SMALL PERTURBATION IN MID-
LEVEL FLOW IN TANDEM WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% COVERAGE) DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED AREA OF
MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. HERE,
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 40-50% RANGE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOOD DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
KEEP HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID-80S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE LOW AND MID-90S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND EAST
TEXAS.
..SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S,
BEFORE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S AND
LOWER-100S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
OBS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE SHOWN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS,
SO WILL KEEP TEMPO MVFR AT TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z. WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30-40% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS (METROPLEX TAF SITES), THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD IN CENTRAL
TEXAS (50-70% CHANCE) SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA IN KACT
TAFS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE) LATER
TONIGHT, BUT THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE
OVER BY 01Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 10
WACO 85 72 88 74 / 70 30 40 20
PARIS 88 71 90 73 / 40 20 20 10
DENTON 91 72 91 73 / 20 20 30 10
MCKINNEY 88 73 89 74 / 20 20 30 10
DALLAS 90 74 92 76 / 30 20 30 10
TERRELL 89 72 90 73 / 30 20 20 10
CORSICANA 90 74 92 76 / 50 20 30 20
TEMPLE 85 72 88 73 / 70 30 40 20
MINERAL WELLS 88 69 88 71 / 30 20 40 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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