808
FXUS64 KFWD 160007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY MAINLY WEST OF I-35. WE'VE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TEXAS
TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (50-70%) WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-84
CORRIDOR, WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. SLOW, ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES NORTHWARD,
BECOMING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (BELOW 40%) NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN AND BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR ALONG.
AFTER SUNSET, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH YET FURTHER, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS (15-30%) SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
THE BEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WEST TOMORROW, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT, THE LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO AN ISOLATED CHANCE (15-30%) FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20, CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW, THOSE CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50%. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING.
WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOMINATE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE, WITH HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS, WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEARER, HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
90S. BY TOMORROW, AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND SKIES CLEAR,
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-35
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TO GIVE THE
REGION ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, INTRODUCING SOME
DRIER AIR, SUNNY SKIES, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL, IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING AND VFR
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME SPORADIC MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING, BUT THINK PROBS ARE A LITTLE
HIGHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WILL HAVE A VCSH FROM 17Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
IS CERTAINLY SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, THE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS/DOWNPOURS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 88 75 93 / 10 30 10 20
WACO 71 86 74 91 / 20 40 10 10
PARIS 70 87 73 91 / 20 20 10 20
DENTON 70 89 73 93 / 10 40 10 10
MCKINNEY 72 87 74 91 / 10 30 10 10
DALLAS 73 89 76 94 / 10 30 10 20
TERRELL 71 88 73 92 / 10 30 20 20
CORSICANA 73 90 75 93 / 10 30 10 20
TEMPLE 70 86 73 91 / 30 50 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 68 86 72 91 / 30 50 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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