757
FXUS64 KFWD 160550
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
COVERAGE OF 20% OR LESS.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES
AHEAD WITH THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER BEING THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
NOW SITUATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TRANS PECOS. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AND EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, BUT ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER LOCALLY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SUBTLE IMPULSES PIVOTING ABOUT THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE CWA TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN AIDED BY
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW'S CENTER, WHILE VERY WEAK HEIGHT RISES BEGIN TO SHUT
THESE CHANCES DOWN ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
SUBSIDENCE. WHILE OUR ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY DOES REMAIN FAIRLY
TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PW VALUES OF 1.7-1.9", THE SLIGHTLY MORE
MID-LATITUDE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PRESENT TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE PREVALENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND MAY ALSO
RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. SOME CELLS
WILL ALSO LIKELY DISPLAY TRANSIENT ROTATION GIVEN THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY PRESENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TROPICAL FUNNEL, THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MORE FORMAL ADVERTISEMENT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
AND THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING, WEAK DYNAMIC ASCENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW COULD
SUSTAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN PLACE,
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WOULD SURPASS
MORE THAN ABOUT 20% WITHIN THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-
FREE. LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING A FEW DAYS OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW/MID 90S HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TO END THE WORKWEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LOW WILL STILL REMAIN NEARBY ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFER
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS TO AN EXTENT.
HOWEVER, WE'LL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ENTIRELY BY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE OF THE HOTTEST
STRETCHES OF THE SUMMER SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH LITTLE/NO CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100-107 EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE AIRPORTS
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING, WITH RAGGED MVFR STRATUS
ALSO RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL LOW CIGS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME, AND SOME INTERMITTENT IMPACTS DUE TO NEARBY TSRA ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT D10 AIRPORTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILL ADVERTISE A SHORT VCTS MENTION WITH FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY
CONSIST OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVOID OF LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 72 89 74 / 20 20 40 20
WACO 84 71 87 73 / 60 20 50 20
PARIS 88 70 88 72 / 20 10 20 10
DENTON 91 70 90 73 / 10 20 50 20
MCKINNEY 89 72 88 73 / 10 20 30 20
DALLAS 90 73 90 75 / 20 20 40 20
TERRELL 89 71 89 73 / 30 20 30 10
CORSICANA 88 73 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
TEMPLE 82 70 87 73 / 70 30 50 20
MINERAL WELLS 87 68 87 70 / 20 30 50 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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