007
FXUS64 KFWD 170607
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
107 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER TEXAS THIS
LAST WEEK SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE WEST, THERE WILL BE ONE
MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BULK OF ANY STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG OR WEST OF US-281, BUT A
STRAY STORM OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
FOR STORMS AS HEIGHT RISES INDUCE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE UPPER-80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE
LOW-90S IN EAST TEXAS.
ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING
TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID-90S INTO THE
LOW-100S EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR
TWO COLDER THAN FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS EVAPORATES INCREASING THE HUMIDITY (AND SPECIFIC
HEAT) OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER SOILS ARE
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING UPPER-90S AND LOWER-100S TO BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS (BKN015-BKN025) FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) THAT
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 1-2 HOURS BEFORE WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE TAFS, SO
WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY IF OBS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW-STRATUS
DECK INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTH. AFTER CLOUDS BURN OFF BY 16Z/17Z,
SOUTH WINDS AT ~10 KTS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KNOTS JUST BEFORE SUNSET
(~00Z).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 93 75 93 75 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 91 74 93 74 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 92 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 92 74 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 93 76 96 77 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 93 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 93 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 92 75 93 74 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 89 73 94 73 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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